Ebb and Flow: Navigating the Ups and Downs of the IT/Cybersecurity Job Market

Introduction

As we close 2024, the job market for IT and cybersecurity professionals is experiencing significant shifts, echoing past economic turbulence. Many compare the current climate to the crises of 2000 and 2008—which could be a stretch— but it's crucial to understand the similarities, differences, and what job seekers can expect moving forward.

Disclaimer: This article addresses the current American economy and does not speak for every country nor is this financial advice.

The Current Landscape: A Tale of Two Markets

Much like the tech downturns of 2000 and 2008, today’s job market is marked by uncertainty and mixed signals. While some industries face layoffs and hiring freezes, others continue to expand, underscoring the “ebb and flow” of market dynamics. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the job market experienced a surge in hiring and compensation, particularly in tech roles. However, this was followed by a period of correction, leaving many professionals feeling uneasy about job stability. Let’s dive into these two markets in detail below:

COVID-19: Sugar Rush (2022)

For those unaware: A sugar rush is a short-lived feeling of energy or excitement that occurs after eating or drinking something with a lot of sugar. Why am I comparing the 2022 IT/Cyber market to that? Take a look at the graph below to get your answer:

# of Open Tech Jobs | TrueUp

The chart shows a significant increase in the number of open tech jobs in 2022, reaching a peak of around 450,000. This ties in with our “sugar rush” metaphor earlier. There was a surge in hiring across tech sectors due to the rapid digital transformation necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic, then a sudden crash, which will be explained later.

Let’s be honest, the the tech sector was one of the major winners during COVID-19: Employees working from home and online schooling due to school lockdowns are a few examples of the general public relying on the IT infrastructure. This is on top of the notion of remote workers vs on-site workers—pushing that the former was more productive, leading to the push for more work-from-home (WFH) employees. This all benefited the IT/Cybersecurity sections, seeing that roles can be done remotely. But, I think we are missing the main point of the whole boom: low interest rates.

Interest Rates

Interest rates are the price you pay to borrow money, according to Equifax. When interest rates are high, it's more expensive to borrow money; when interest rates are low, it's less expensive to borrow money. During the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates were nearly zero—pretty much FREE money to borrow. Take a look at the chart below: during the “sugar rush” and after (present-day).

Interest Rate Graph | Federal Reserve Bank of New York

As you see, during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022), interest was really low (both for lending and borrowing). Does it make sense—as an investor—to keep your money in a bank for a 1% annual rate? No, so investors were more inclined to grow, hence the massive capital available for stocks and startups. Let me show you this before we conclude on this portion.

Out of the $5 Trillion in Pandemic Stimulus, $1.7 million went into businesses. Look at the chart below, provided by The New York Times.

$1.7 Trillion Relief Fund | The New York Times

Does this make sense why tech companies had the agility and confidence to rapidly expand, hiring thousands of new employees? This also led to the Great Resignation of 2022—where most people quit to take new jobs, some in the IT/Cybersecurity industry. According to many, higher wages and remote work helped fuel the trend, but let’s leave that for another topic. I was a beneficiary of this, landing my first cybersecurity job in late 2022, despite lacking experience and a STEM degree.

Market Correction: Down Pour (2024)

This brings us to the present day. Earlier, we learned that the demand for tech increased during COVID-19 hence the “over-hiring” during the pandemic. Now that things are cooling off, including the demand, the excess staff is being eliminated, and/or headcount is being reduced. The pandemic officially ended on May 11, 2023. Companies are realizing that not everyone will continue to shop online for everything; they can go outside and do things. The boom cycle has ended, now enter the bust.

Rising inflation is the main culprit—according to many. Currently floating around 5–6% (at the time of this article). Money has gotten so expensive, that companies have to cut costs to stay afloat. Employees are arguably the most expensive expense to a business. Projects are often financed by debt (remember, high interest rates). Those two together don’t make a winning formula.

Offshore Hiring

Another thing going on in 2024 (that most people won’t admit) is offshore hiring. According to Resume Builder, “1 in 5 Companies Replaced Laid Off U.S. Employees With Offshore Workers.” Guess what the main reason is: cost.

Offshore Employee Reasons Graph | Resume Builder

This trend stems from the COVID-19 pandemic. Think about it, remote work has proven to be possible, but what is stopping companies from having remote work from across the world? Yeah, a few time zone differences and language barriers. Despite all that, it is cheaper in the company's eyes. Some may say that offshoring prevents American companies from capitalizing on on-shore talent and making more taxpayers support social services. Recently, companies like Microsoft and IBM have been pulling their operations from countries like China—some citing intellectual property theft or failure to capitalize in said country’s economy

Artificial Intelligence

A survey by Beautiful AI, of 3,000 American managers, reveals that “41% of managers said they are hoping that they can replace employees with cheaper AI tools.” This goes back to the previous point: businesses cutting expenses to stay afloat. Some companies are already doing this.

The Cybersecurity Workforce: Rising Demand Amidst Uncertainty

All right, enough of the doom and gloom. I just want to be truthful to those curious about the current state of the market. Let’s introduce some optimism!

The cybersecurity sector remains in the bright spot in the tech industry. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), cybersecurity has a 33% projected percent change in employment from 2023 to 2033. This is 8 times the average.

Information Security Analysts | BLS

However, the growth has not kept pace with demand; the workforce gap has widened by 13%, indicating a global shortfall of nearly 4 million [experienced] cybersecurity professionals according to ISC2. This gap is further exacerbated by economic pressures—which we discussed in detail earlier. Companies are implementing cost-saving measures such as layoffs, offshoring, budget cuts, and hiring freezes. According to ISC2, “47% of cybersecurity professionals have dealt with cutbacks to their teams in the form of layoffs, budget cuts, and hiring or promotion freezes. 22% have experienced layoffs, and 31% expect additional cutbacks in the next year.” Wait, I thought you were done with the doom and gloom? Yes, this is called the truth. I won’t sugarcoat it like we are in 2022. Although these times don’t rival 2000 or 2008, it is still rough. These cutbacks, while necessary for some companies to stay afloat, have significant implications for the security of these organizations, giving more opportunities to hackers, as reduced headcount often leads to increased workload and diminished morale among remaining staff. Let’s close off with some advice below.

Advice for Job Seekers: Navigating the Ebb and Flow

I haven't defined Ebb and Flow yet. This is an idiom used to describe a recurrent or rhythmical pattern of coming and going or decline and regrowth. I saved it until the end so you can compare both tales of the market: The Sugar Rush in 2022 and The Down Pour in 2024. The former is UP and the latter is DOWN. I am no prophet, I can’t tell you what the next few years will look like. But I can help you navigate the Ebb and Flow. If you are a job seeker in the IT and Cybersecurity field, the key to success in this fluctuating market is adaptability and continuous learning. Here are some strategies to consider:

Upskill Continuously: Focus on acquiring skills in high-demand areas (e.g., cloud security, AI, or machine learning). Anything that the world deems valuable, as Dr. Cal Newport would define career capital.

Network and Stay Informed: Engaging with professional networks and staying updated on industry trends can provide insights into job opportunities and market shifts. Platforms like LinkedIn and professional forums can be valuable resources.

Be Flexible: While large tech companies may be slowing down hiring, there are still opportunities in other sectors that are increasingly integrating technology into their operations. Look beyond traditional tech roles and consider industries that are ramping up their digital transformation efforts.

Leverage Experience Over Education: The ISC2 study indicates that employers often value practical experience over formal education. If you’re transitioning into cybersecurity, emphasize your hands-on experience and practical problem-solving skills.

Conclusion

Did you enjoy this article? Are you rethinking your career options? Am I a pessimist? Regardless of what questions you have, count the cost of what you are doing in life. Seeing that we are speaking of careers, understand the sacrifices and benefits that come with your desired role. The IT and Cybersecurity job market is currently navigating through a period of correction—even with the White House stepping in. While it’s not as severe as past crises, the mixed signals in the market require job seekers to be vigilant and proactive. By staying adaptable, continuously upskilling, and leveraging your experience, you can successfully navigate the Ebb and Flow of this ever-evolving landscape.

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